The Educational Speed-Bump and Global Economy

By - Astha Mukherjee

Education is the foundation stone towards a better life. What happens when it is abruptly disrupted by a global pandemic? Are online classes a perfect substitute? What will be the long-term impact of this disruption on students, future employers and global economies?

According to UNESCO estimates 23.8 million additional children and youth may drop out or not have access to school next year due to the pandemic’s economic impact alone. The number of children not returning to their education after the school closures is likely to be even greater. At least 1.6 Billion students have been affected by the disruption of the education systems worldwide, further escalating the existing disparities in education between countries due to lack of technology and resources in poor nations. This will inevitably increase the already wide knowledge divide among nations.

The learning losses could be severe even for the students who do not drop out. A simulation by Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) suggests that ”Without remediation, a loss of learning by one-third [equivalent to a three-month school closure] during Grade 3 might result in 72% of students falling so far behind that by Grade 10 they will have dropped out or will not be able to learn anything in school “.“The economic loss might reach $16,000 of lost earnings over a student’s lifetime, translating over time into $10 trillion of lost earnings globally.”

This conclusively proves that the impact of coronavirus may never go away as the quality of human capital may never be the same again. With no end to the Covid-19 pandemic in sight, school and university closures will not only have a short-term impact on the continuity of learning for more than 285 million young learners in India but also have far-reaching economic and societal consequences.

 In India one of the major incentives for the poor to attend school was the mid-day meal system. With that incentive out of the picture for the foreseeable future, coupled with the lack of technology, many students have no means or motivation to continue their education. Even after this crisis is over many may not return to school, merely due to financial instability- pushing hundreds of students into child labour. 

IMAGE CREDITS:THE ECONOMIST

In addition to the long run economic hiatus, the immediate impact on economies is also a cause of concern. A large number of students enrol in higher education institutions overseas, which are a critical determinant of a country’s economic future. Many such students are unable to travel due to strict travel restrictions. While many might defer their plans to study abroad entirely, simply because they do not want to miss out on the full university and living experience in another country, for others it just doesn’t sound practical to spend lakhs just to take online classes in this economic scenario. Polling by QS Consultancy suggests that at least 4 in 10 students may put off their plans to study overseas. Overseas education not only advances the skillset and cultural exposure of the population, but is also a big source of income for the hosting countries in the form of living costs, travel, transfers and fees. Many institutions may shut down completely due to this abrupt disruption in fund flow. The only flicker of hope for this sector is the experience that there is usually an uptick in the number of students during recessions due to a lack of opportunities in the job market.

Unless the vaccine status among children improves and the pandemic approaches endemic state, the dynamics at play in the education sector may lead to a disastrous situation for the future economies.

In India, the recent National Education Policy and Digitization initiatives may act as a guiding light to the “new normal” way of education, but implementation will play a key role in the success of these policies for the revival of this core sector.

By:-

Astha Mukherjee

(3rd Year)